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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #156 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Anthony Kay
Anthony Kay · #60
V⁻ —VORP -62V⁺ —
Anthony Kay

Anthony Kay

SP·CHW
Compare
Compare
BF
323
K %
17.0%
BB %
8.7%
xwOBA
.362
PTS
113
PPG
7.53
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj161688.046004.444.3618.1%9.1%9.0%————1137.09
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
64
94.5
FB Spin
61
2305
Extension
2026
15
13
70.3
6
2
0
0
4.61
5.32
17.0%
8.7%
8.3%
.362
.288
77.1%
43.8%
113
7.53
202317015.710005.745.5316.7%13.6%3.1%.390.25067.6%31.8%211.24
2022314.010004.503.1030.0%10.0%20.0%.432.25060.0%20.0%124.00
202113640.313005.365.4125.0%11.5%13.5%.344.34877.3%47.9%372.85
202013021.020035.144.8622.4%14.3%8.1%.363.32272.3%37.1%413.15
20193214.010005.792.5320.6%7.9%12.7%.336.34157.1%54.5%227.33
9
5.91
Results
xwOBA
12
.362
Barrel %
31
9.3
Hard-Hit %
46
39.8
K %
19
17.0
BB %
37
8.7
Chase %
66
31.8
Whiff %
32
19.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
96
≈ 36th pctl
Stuff+
122
if they swing
Command+
89
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
117
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
3.8%
16 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.000 better than avg · 125 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.013 worse than avg · 33 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 419 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.8%95.92372+15.1+7.65.8913.6%54.2%25.4%35.2%8.5%0.439
SweeperST
19.5%82.8

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE37°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTSLSICH
Usage35%19%18%14%14%
MPH95.982.890.795.185.6
LHP Avg93.281.084.793.084.6
2451
-0.6
-13.1
5.75
33.3%
40.9%
33.3%
17.9%
11.5%
0.311
SliderSL
17.7%90.72423+6.6-2.35.8416.7%45.0%28.3%27.3%0.0%0.467
SinkerSI
14.2%95.12197+5.4+16.65.8320.8%41.7%29.2%50.0%36.4%0.355
ChangeupCH
13.9%85.61647-0.5+13.56.0720.0%12.8%10.6%36.6%7.1%0.365

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″ST · 25″SI · 22″SL · 25″CH · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 23″ST · 56″SI · 26″SL · 41″CH · 47″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.21′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTSLSICH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTSLSICH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTSLSICH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.