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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Player Comparison

Side-by-side

Current season, prior year, and blended projection — plus Statcast percentiles.

Pavin SmithARI · 1B
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2026 Season
Year to date
PlayerGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%HRSBPPGxPPG
Pavin SmithARI1441.152.300.242.090.26924.4%17.1%100.86—
2025 Season
Prior year
PlayerGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%HRSBPPGxPPG
Pavin SmithARI91288.258.365.434.176.32331.9%14.2%821.49—
2026 Projection
Blended (ATC · ZiPS · Steamer · THE BAT · BATX · FG · Oopsy)
PlayerGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%HRSBPPGxPPG
Pavin SmithARI44191.236.329.388.152.32424.7%12.0%511.95—
2026 Statcast percentiles
vs qualified MLB pool · red = elite, blue = poor
PlayerxwOBAxBAxSLGAvg EV90th EVBarrel %Hard-Hit %Bat SpeedChase %Whiff %
Pavin Smith.269.152.21786.6102.98.337.570.220.519.2